In a recent report, Goldman’s top economist Jan Hatzius predicted that finally, the U.S. would see a real growth acceleration in the second half of 2013.
There are three great reasons to listen to Hatzius:
1. He’s the top economist at Goldman Sachs. That alone is a reason to take him seriously.
2. He called the economic downturn. Remember, he got pilloried in 2007 by Ben Stein for saying that housing was going down, and that the economic ramifications would be significant.
3. He has a framework for analyzing the economy that’s rare among Wall Street economists.
At the core of his call — which was made in a note titled The US Economy in 2013-2016: Moving Over the Hump — was this simple chart:
The chart demonstrates a critical economic concept: Government deficits (the grey line) are essentially the mirror image of private…
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